Drewmocracy

Articles by NPR, Politico, the New York Times, and other mainstream media sources, are painting a picture of a steep hill for Hillary.

NPR Blog: Media Ask “The Beginning of the End for Clinton?”:

A “drumbeat” has started to sound in the media the past week with the speech on race by Sen. Barack Obama and with the announcement of Bill Richardson’s endorsement of Obama - “this could be the beginning of the end for Clinton.”

Time’s Mark Halperin writes in Painful Things Hillary Clinton Knows — Or Should Know that Hillary can’t win without dismissing the will of the people:

1. She can’t win the nomination without overturning the will of the elected delegates, which will alienate many Democrats.

2. She can’t win the nomination without a bloody convention battle — after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.

3. Catching up in the popular vote is not out of the question — but without re-votes in Florida and Michigan it will be almost as impossible as catching up in elected delegates.

Politico: Story behind the story: The Clinton myth:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

The New York Times’ analysis of fundraising suggests that as of the end of February, Hillary is at severe financial disadvantage to the virtually debt-free Obama campaign.

Once the outstanding campaign debt of $8.7 million is factored in, Mrs. Clinton has only $3 million in free cash for the battles ahead — one-tenth of the $31 million the Obama campaign has in primary cash.

Slate’s Christopher Beam says that Clinton’s path to the nomination is “barricaded”:

All this being a long way of saying, Hillary’s path to the nomination is not “narrow.” It’s barricaded. Yet still there seems to be a hesitation among the media to declare Clinton dead. Maybe it’s her zombielike ability to rise again—first in New Hampshire, then in Nevada, then most recently in Texas and Ohio. But people have to understand there will be no knockout blow, no head shot. Rather it will be a long, slow exit that causes pain to everyone involved.

The New York Times says that Clinton can only win if she a) wins Pennsylvania soundly, b) leads in the popular vote come June, and c) succeeds in casting doubts on Obama via some revelation that causes superdelgates to overturn his lead — basically subverting the outcome of the popular votes in previous primaries and caucuses.

NYT: Clinton Facing Narrower Path to Nomination:

For Mrs. Clinton, all this has seemed something of a long shot since her defeats in February. But that shot seems to have grown a little longer.

My read of these articles is that with re-votes in Michigan and Florida looking doubtful, it’s looking unlikely that the campaign will continue into May. Although Hillary will likely win Pennsylvania on April 22, Obama may counter that with wins in North Carolina and Indiana two weeks later. At that point, the math will be undeniably clear, and Clinton will have no choice but to bow out.